This is a fun item, b/c "pure protest drives the far right vote" is a zombie idea that keeps coming back. Still, 2/3 of non-AfD respondents believe in pure protest, whereas 7/10
#AfD
voters say they are motivated by ideology/policy
#ep2024
#Germany
What does 'place' even mean for
#farright
politics, and how is it linked to populist radical right attitudes in
#Germany
& elsewhere? Glad that you asked, and super happy that
@EPSRjournal
has just published our (
@theresa_be
&me) answer (open access)
Thomas
#Kemmerich
, a centre-right politician, has just become minister president of
#Thuringia
with the support of the
#AfD
. This is big for various reasons (a thread) 1/x
'Protest voting' for the radical right is a zombie idea, now wheeled out once more to explain the
#AfD
's surge in the polls. But a recent survey shows that 4 in 5 AfD supporters see the party as close to their personal values, a figure comparable to the CDU & their electorate
So I'm teaching a mandatory stats/methods class (always popular). Online. Following the advice from my own kids, I have memified the outline. For your own syllabus needs, here is the week-by-week program. Introduction:
#btw21
numbers look pretty stable now. Move on, Twitter. The excitement is over. 🇩🇪 is officially reverting to mostly boring. We'll be back in December or so when we form a government / fail to form a government. In the meantime, feel free to share more takes on Merkel's legacy
Journalists, practitioners, fellow anoraks: your monthly reminder that we collectively know a lot about the Radical Right. Before going on a Google chase / reinventing the wheel, take a look at these +700 references & follow
@RRResRobot
for updates
Note to self: if a piece of social science research does not mention any specific country in the title, abstract, or introduction, it is safe to assume that all its very general statements apply specifically and perhaps exclusively to the US.
Future conference organisers: we know where we are, and why. Please USE most of the available space to print NAMES IN A HUGE FONT SIZE. Most of us have bad eyesight *and* social inhibitions & would like to know who the other person is w/o violating their personal space
#ecprgc22
Yesterday's events in
#Thuringia
have highlighted the principle of the cordon sanitaire -the idea that democratic parties should not co-operate in any way with the far right. Today, a survey shows that a majority of Germans supports this -even 8% of the
#AfD
's supporters 🤔
Got the memo? Most important issues for Bavarian voters:
1. Education
2. Housing
3. Environment/climate change
4. Asylum and refugees
And not everyone who names asylum as in important issues wants to put limits on it.
#ltwby2018
Perfectly normal day in
#Germany
: journalists identify >100 right-wing extremists who work as staffers
#AfD
MPs in the Bundestag. Right-wing extremists = members of organisations classified as such by the domestic intelligence agencies 🌐
🚨 🚨 🚨 Out today in Party Politics: identification with an anti-system party (here:
#Germany
's
#farright
#AfD
) is bad for democracy, because it undermines trust in liberal-democratic institutions. And it's (probably) causal. Here is why and how 👉 🧵
A manuscript of mine, of which I'm very fond, has been under review at a good journal since May. It has gotten to the point where I'm quite happy with this arrangement, because having it under review indefinitely certainly feels better than having it rejected would.
Remember that this is a poll, i.e. a snapshot of the public's mood, affected by random and non-random error, taken in a very volatile situation. The final result will look different. But apart from that: wow
Latest Politbarometer poll in
#Germany
shows that 77% of all voters and 85% of CDU/CSU supporters are against any form of collaboration between Christian Democrats & radical right
#AfD
.
On the other side, 96% of AfD voters are in favour
📚 Tomorrow (16:15 Newman Building, Room: F102) I'm presenting a paper that brings together 2 of my favourite obsessions:
#religion
and the
#farright
. It's been a long time in the making and I'm very happy to finally bring it to
#ecprgc24
. But if you can't make it, here is a 🧵
CDU now just over 24%, SPD just under 26%, much as the last polls suggested. Laschet is spinning this as a success ('catching up in the final days' after trailing even more) In reality, it would be the worst ever result for the Christian Democrats.
Are you an 🇺🇸 professor who is occasionally forced to comment on 🗳️ in some 🇪🇺 country where shit has hit/is about to hit the proverbial fan? Print out this handy chart before going on air, and 90% of your work is already done.
The 2024 update of my bibliography on the
#radicalright
/
#farright
is here. With 222 (!) new titles (and thanks to the support of
@SLdeLange
), it is the biggest update yet:
Happens every day on planet political science, a place that is very good at reinventing stuff, because it is very bad at intergenerational knowledge transfer.
The most German thing about the wannabe conspirators in 🇩🇪 is that they made a large (>100) number of accessories sign non-disclosure agreements (hopefully in line with the Reich's regulations on data protection)
German Politics PSA re
#btw21
: it is neither constitutionally nor politically necessary to include the strongest party in government. Also, there is no formateur or informateur, and no constitutional time-limit for the formation of a new government
If you feel CONSTANTLY OVERWHELMED BY THE FLOOD OF NEW BOOKS THAT SHOULD READ OR AT LEAST KNOW ABOUT, the
New Books in Political Science podcast
delivers wonderful, commute-sized reviews / interviews with the authors right to your earphones.
3 weeks before the elex,
#Thuringia
is giving off distinct Weimar vibes in the latest Politbarometer poll. The state was instrumental for the rise of the
#farright
#AfD
since 2014. But the Left (currently in minority gov) and its breakaway
#BSW
are also quite strong
#Germany
1/4
I talked with
@populismstudies
about the
#AfD
's wild journey from the softly Eurosceptic centre towards the roots of German right-wing extremism, and what it means for 🇩🇪 &🇪🇺. In short: it's not pretty
The Netherlands are going to the polls today. They have nationwide PR, state capacity, & the highest ratio of excellent political scientists/km2 on 🌍, so we will almost instantaneously know what happened, and why. /1
Following revelations about far right plans for mass deportations, millions of Germans have taken part in mass protests during the last three weeks. In possibly related news, the
#AfD
party drops below 20% in one of the most reliable national polls for the first time since June
German media: Kremlin drafted strategy paper for the further development of Germany's radical right
#AfD
party. Bits of that paper made it - more or less verbatim - into a speech given by a prominent party hardliner. Bombshell even by their standards.
Fascinating survey from
#Germany
:
whilst journalist are writing about the (fringe) protests & politicians outbid each other, 56% are *against* further easing of anti-covid measures. That's a 15 point *in*crease within a week. Plus: partisan split
New OA publication 🚨 🚨 🚨. Can 19th century repression of Catholics explain differences in current support for the
#radicalright
#AfD
in
#Germany
(as suggested in Haffert 2022)? Short answer: No. Long answer: still no, but with more letters + numbers🧵
I appreciate that editors are humans & deserve a summer break, but waiting 2 months for a desk reject (the 2nd time in a row) defies the objective. I (almost) fondly remember
@dfarrell_ucd
desk rejecting a MS 2 hours after submission, on a Sunday night. 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 the spirit.
I somehow missed this excellent interview with Vicente Valentim
@ValentimVicente
on his research into the dynamics of the radical right's normalisation in Europe, but nearly two years later, it has become even more relevant. Well worth your time.
Today, on 3 October, we mark our National Day by celebrating the friendship between people from 🇬🇧 & 🇩🇪.
Post stories, videos or photos showing what the friendship between 🇬🇧 & 🇩🇪 means to you using
#MyUKGermanFriendship
.
The best entries win prizes! ℹ️
Germany's radical right
#AfD
has aligned itself with the anti-vax/Covid denialism movement. Now they have to cancel their national party conference - b/c hotels require proof of vaccination, which many delegates can't provide
I have updated the bibliography on
#RadicalRight
parties & their voters. There are 49 new titles, the total is now 955. Watch the video to see what is new and click here for the write-up
@NAChristakis
Important qualification: study was carried out in a well-known hot-spot (small town, documented early spreading event). % with antibodies in general population presumably much lower