Professor & Chair of Global Public Health, Edinburgh Uni. Director of
@GlobalHealthGP
. Visiting faculty, Univ of Miami. Level 3 Personal Trainer. Views own.
Squeezed in 🌈! Pretty special to have a global public health book read this widely in Britain from a Miami girl 😊. Thank you all 🙏🏼 Celebrating by heading out to Wardie Bay 🏄🏾♀️
Particularly bumpy workweek. I know people are angry about Covid (on all different fronts) but don’t want to be a punching bag anymore. I didn’t cause Covid. I’m not even in charge of much. I’m just an academic trying to explain simply what’s happening. That’s all.
We will be stuck in an endless cycle of lockdown/release for next 18 months, if we do not start mass testing, tracing, & isolating those who are carriers of the virus while pursuing rapid research for antiviral treatment or vaccine. This is the message the public needs to hear.
When people start attacking you as a person with petty insults, instead of engaging with your research & arguments, then you know you’re doing something right.
Prof Devi Sridhar - "It's too early to be lifting the self isolation rules... when we still have over 200 deaths a day to Covid... this is clearly been done to distract from the problems Boris Johnson is facing over breaking lockdown rules.."
#KayBurley
Herd immunity didn’t develop to cholera, yellow fever, smallpox, measles, TB, malaria, or plague -> public health measures were used to control them until vaccines or elimination strategies were developed.
As a global public health expert, I don’t accept that US & UK poor responses were due to capacity. Poorer countries did much better. It’s down to absent leadership, incompetence & a deliberate decision to treat COVID-19 like flu for weeks in Feb & March & just ‘let it go’.
From everything I can gather, the UK situation with this new variant is not good. Please avoid seeing other households indoors, wear face coverings, avoid crowded places and be extra cautious for the coming days. Ignore those who say it’s not a big deal & play it down.
Same people- who go on holiday abroad/mixed freely over Christmas period- complaining about: schools in online learning, restrictions in place, and NHS wait-times for A&E.
How to communicate that we're all connected? Your decisions affect me. My decisions affect you.
The real question about Christmas-> do you want to expose the people you love to this virus? Do you want to be responsible for the virus spreading at your home, or as a guest in someone else's? If you don't, be cautious. Don't need govt to tell you that. It's common sense.
Was asked recently in an interview whether given majority of deaths are in over 65s, if this is an ‘acceptable loss’? Couldn’t believe we are even asking this question. Thinking of all the vibrant & inspiring 70 & 80 year olds I know (incl my grandparents).
We're so close to an era with mass testing, therapeutics and several vaccines -> why risk getting infected & infecting others over the holidays? Delaying by a few months is perfectly rational given solutions within sight in the Spring. We've been in this for 10 months already.
I love Scotland. It's absolutely chucking down rain, yet park still full of people running in t-shirt & shorts, kids playing football, fitness classes & dog-walkers. Somedays just need to make your own sunshine. ☀️
The treatment of women in political & public life is atrocious. Makes you wonder if it’s deliberate to intimidate & scare women from thinking they can dream bigger & do better.
Are we all thinking the same thing? It feels like some of UK decision-making around COVID-19 is being driven by parties. Even Denmark, which has largely released restrictions bc of high vaccine uptake, still requires people to isolate if positive so they don't infect others.
This must be painful to read for those who were severely ill & for those who lost loved ones to COVID. It wasn’t because they were weak- just unnecessarily exposed to a virus. And wanting to avoid getting COVID isn’t ‘cowering’- it’s being sensible & looking out for others.
If it avoids rising cases, people getting ill, another lockdown and helps businesses stay open -> doesn’t it make sense to keep face masks for indoor settings like shops & public transport, until we understand more about vaccine effectiveness in stopping transmission?
I feel like I make myself unpopular by looking ahead 6-12 months & sketching out how things could evolve (best to worst case) so we work towards best case. This is public health. We try to avert future crises by anticipating & preventing them. Not the most fun at parties I know.
Top German scientists:
1. Herd immunity not possible bc immunity too short.
2. Not feasible to go 'shield vulnerable' approach bc impossible to fully identify & isolate them.
3. Potential serious, long-term damage to young/healthy also from this virus.
Talked to a lovely nurse on the train- we were the only ones wearing masks in our carriage in England. She’s seen many people die of Covid incl a close colleague. People are deluded thinking the pandemic is over. Let’s use tools to manage COVID. Not pretend it doesn’t exist.
Just remember that certain politicians tell you want you want to hear emotionally bc they want to be popular. Scientists will tell you what you need to hear (based in data & analysis)- even if you dislike what’s being said.
Just bc someone has a pre-existing health condition, does not mean they would have anyways died this month, this year, or this decade. 'Underlying health condition' should not equal 'acceptable that they died'.
Biggest mistake UK made (& continues to make) is seeing COVID like flu that will become seasonal & come back each winter rather than like SARS to push to eliminate. Aside from lives & NHS strain, economy & children are paying an unacceptably high cost for this approach.
Many people stressing today- I get that. It’s been a traumatic 18 months. I’ll continue to share the latest scientific evidence, expert advice & insights in as calm & neutral a way as possible. You’re not alone and we’re going to find a good way forward together.
I don’t know anyone who is not struggling right now. Some much more than others. Need to keep going taking it day by day, stay positive & keep smiling. Better days ahead...
Just off a C4 panel on travel abroad where a Conservative MP said Brits should go abroad for holidays because they’re less likely to catch Covid-19 there than staying at home 🙄
Exactly the wrong message to be giving out. Why focus on summer holidays abroad instead of getting schools open? Hospitality & the arts back on their feet? NHS managing well?
Feel nauseous watching this testimony. It's what we all could piece together was happening in No.10 & in SAGE, but to hear it directly and to re-live those weeks is just astonishing. How many lives could have been saved? How much of the harsh domestic restrictions were avoidable?
I don’t think many people fully understand what hospitals look like inside- the pressures on the NHS and the burn-out & exhaustion of staff. Any more media coverage of this would be welcome. {Hint: The problem isn’t GPs or staff}.
Watching
#marr
& clear message is UK govt struggling to get economy going bc people have changed behaviour. They’re trying to get people back to offices & restaurants through financial incentives but missing that suppressing virus is best way to get confidence back & normality.
Waking up to the sun shining ☀️ & blue skies on my 37th 🎂 and wondering what fun lies ahead today. Thanks for supporting & following me on this platform. Another year older, hopefully another year wiser. 🎉
Sounds sci-fi but if every country would coordinate their border shutdowns & lockdowns for a limited time, we would be through this much faster. Cooperation is in all countries’ long-term interest.
We could see almost a quarter of Gaza’s population - close to half- a million human beings - dying within a year. Largely deaths from preventable health causes & collapse of the medical system. It’s a crude estimate, but one that is data-driven…
👇🏼 New UK health minister saying COVID is like flu. Same position 18 months into the pandemic. 😩 We didn’t have to vaccinate the entire adult population against flu, or do mass community testing, or have lockdowns bc hospitals full. I don’t understand this analogy.
We are going to have to learn to live with Covid and find ways to cope with it – just as we already do with flu.
Please read my piece in the Mail on Sunday.
Happy Monday!☀️ What incredible young talent England has in
@BukayoSaka87
@Sanchooo10
@MarcusRashford
- 👏 inspiring a whole generation of kids to dream big. And in the case of Rashford, actually getting govt to feed them too. Heroes.
I get asked question & answer factually. Cue: abuse about being negative. I don’t sell false hope or make myself popular by saying virus will just disappear. It won’t. We can either be at the mercy of this virus, or we can proactively get ahead of it. It’s up to govts and to us.
Keep hearing of a 'third wave' like it's something that happens to us. It's about decisions govt and individuals make each day- about each of our behaviours. Outdoors safer than indoors. Wear masks indoors. Avoid crowded places. See COVID transmission like smoke. Get vaccinated.
Kids are the real losers of failure to suppress COVID. Rise in cases makes it hard to get back them back to school & to address concerns of teachers & parents. No one in No.10 seems to be thinking about kids & schools- only about holidays & pubs. Schools should be
#1
priority.
I reject the cynical fatalism: ‘there’s nothing we can do about another large omicron wave.’ Our actions matter: wear masks in crowded places, get vaccinated, get tested before socialising, quality> quantity of contacts, get outside. Our micro-behaviours matter. Think of the NHS.
My observation: almost everyone on the train wears masks in Scotland until they get to the border, then about half take them off for England. And same going back -> cross the border to Scotland & everyone puts their masks on. Aliens observing us would find it comical.
Drowning in omicron news? My takeaway: highly transmissible, can re-infect those who’ve had covid or vaccinated but likely less severe illness. High attack rates at parties/dinners. Best to reduce close contacts heading into Xmas, avoid crowds & wear masks in shops/transport.
Looking at the estimates for daily new cases in England (8K/day), the openings of shops/schools on Monday, watching carefully what's happening in East Asia & combining this with what we know so far about this virus --> feels like mistakes are being repeated from early March.
I’m fed up with politicians who use public office for private gain (whether in PPE contracts for friends or tax ‘issues’ or loans or whatever else) instead of improving life for the people they’re supposed to represent. Each day, another story. When does it end?
Happy Wed!☀️ Seeing colleague after colleague burn out from workload & stress. Here’s your reminder: you only have 1 body. 1 shot at life. Everyone is replaceable at work- not to their loved ones. Eat well, get time outside to walk & move, see friends, drink water & sleep.
Omicron latest: Looks more transmissible than delta. Likely to become dominant strain. Can re-infect those who had delta recently. Can infect fully vaccinated. Unsure if vaccines protect against severe infection but likely. Priority: vaccinate & slow impact on NHS over winter.
Happy Wednesday! ☀️❄️ Holiday thanks to all of you for following, despite my bad jokes & random musings, and for your constant support through a rocky 2020. Also appreciate the warm welcome to living in Scotland. It’s a special & friendly place to live and work. I love it here.
It’s strange to be misrepresented as ‘pro-lockdown’ when everything I’ve been writing & saying since Feb has been about how to **avoid** lockdown/release cycles. Which means don’t try to stay within healthcare capacity (which forces reactive lockdowns). Crush the curve.
Happy Tues! ☀️ Just remember UK govt COVID decisions are now driven by catching headlines & not in the interests of the health & well-being of the population. We can both recognize need to open up economy & society using vaccines/testing and seriousness of COVID as a disease.
So not the PM’s advice to ‘go holiday abroad’, ‘Eat out to Help Out’, ‘get back to the office or lose your job’, & ‘It’s ok to break the rules based on your interpretation’?
When people resort to name-calling & personal attacks, you know they’ve lost the argument. The twitter universe can rage, but from my side, it’s only good vibes towards all ☀️ 🙏🏼 🧘🏾♀️
To all those unhappy with control measures (such as vaccine passports) & restrictions -> if hospitals fill up & ambulances can’t be off-loaded & there are no beds for Covid patients or heart attacks or cancer treatment or anything else- what’s your solution?
Happy Monday!❄️
1. In UK, take the vaccine you are offered. Some protection is better than none.
2. If you've had 1 dose, still be cautious, distance & avoid mixing.
3. S. African variant is warning sign of potential other variants out there. Need border policies in place asap.
Lockdowns just press pause on spread of virus. Press play & it starts spreading again. Need to use the time to build up testing & tracing. Test results have to be returned within 24 hours for system to work.
Listening to anti-lockdowners saying older people/those with health issues lives have less worth. Anti-lockdowners responsible for pushing us into these cycles instead of letting public health get on top of the virus & then having full domestic recovery (like other countries).
Creation of complex rules (with # of people, households, exceptions) varying by tiers has created a perverse system where people look for loopholes. Instead, focus on why this virus is risky, what we can all do to avoid getting it & passing it on & the underlying science.
I’m increasingly convinced by data from countries across the world that we are underestimating the harms of keeping young kids out of school & overplaying their role in transmission. Children should be in school.
Study in Norway tested *all* contacts of 5 to 13 year olds with covid. They conclude "transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from children under 14 years of age was minimal in primary schools in Oslo and Viken, the 2 counties with the highest COVID-19 incidence"👇
Happy Monday! ☀️ This is truly the worst time & normal to feel low- new variant spreading quickly, depths of winter, NHS under pressure. But we will get through with vaccines, testing, weather change in Spring & Summer, & continuing to look out for each other. Better days ahead!
3 phases:
Winter: ensure NHS doesn’t collapse. Strong restrictions on mixing.
Spring: Suppress to low levels & get robust mass testing & supported isolation in place.
Summer: Eliminate & protect low
prevalence with border measures.
We cannot have this winter repeat again.
Sending out good vibes & positivity on this platform 🤗- even those who hate on me- I bet if we had a cup of coffee, we would have more in common than you’d think. We don’t have to agree on everything to have mutual respect & civility.
Here’s your daily reminder: take whatever vaccine you are offered. Pfizer, Moderna, AZ, J&J- they’re all good & being regulated. You’d rather have the vaccine than COVID, and vaccines are a major part of how we end this crisis & return to mixing/socialising & an open economy.
Reflecting on how I was accused of scare-mongering on 16 Jan when I tweeted & talked about likely human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (wasn't confirmed until later). Outbreaks are like looking through a fog. Move early & in precautionary way while assembling the evidence.
Happy Sunday! ❄️ Bad news: this new variant is spreading quickly & our current restrictions don’t seem to be enough. Xmas & NYE going to make it worse. Please be cautious & keep distancing/avoid indoor/crowded places!! Just need to get through this hardest period until Spring.
Happy Saturday!☀️At least 5 safe & effective vaccines means this pandemic could end without 2 million more deaths. Vaccine nationalism will put us backwards. In all countries' interests to ensure people in all countries are vaccinated, & virus isn't circulating & mutating.
Key asks for G7:
1. Donate vaccines to India urgently.
2. Support with medical help: oxygen, staff, more beds. Emergency hospitals.
3. Push World Bank to offer financing to Indian govt to provide food security/basic income to help people stay home, reduce mixing & not starve.
Happy Saturday! ☀️ Nothing better than waking up to blue skies & sun. It’s a horribly awful time- we always knew winter would be bad- but things will get better soon. Keep going, keep smiling & keep being kind & looking out for each other.😊
Scotland- 6 new people testing positive & 0 deaths for 5 days. Credit to Health Protection Scotland team who work incredibly hard doing the public health slog of test/trace/isolate. Their efforts & good public compliance mean more & more lockdown measures can be relaxed safely.
Just bc you can drive 70mph on the motorway, doesn't mean you should, if you feel it's unsafe. Esp. if it's raining, foggy or snowing. The conditions matter. Same right now -> just because more mixing is allowed, make your own judgement based on prevalence & vaccination status.
How can we get numbers down if people keep returning from trips abroad to COVID hotspots like Dubai? This is a reserved power to U.K. govt. They are undermining all local efforts to suppress bc they’re not putting in place any real travel restrictions.
@RuthDavidsonMSP
Your tweet reflects how little you know me & my views. Not about politics. It's about finding the best way forward for kids, parents and teachers. I'm an expert in global public health looking at int'l best practice & trying to bring those learnings to help Scotland & the UK.
I hope people can now see that those of us speaking out at the time were not anti-Tory, or trying to be difficult. We were highlighting serious problems with the early response and wanted to guide the country towards a better path. To help save UK lives and the UK economy.
Keep being asked questions about meeting/travel over the holidays that people want to hear an emotionally reassuring & comforting answer. I can't do that as a public health scientist right now & have to be straight, even if unpopular.
Will people react to £10 incentive to eat in restaurants & the push by PM Johnson to go back to live normally? Could it be that it’s the virus that is ruining the economy & best way to get economy going is to drive virus out so people feel safe? Do the hard public health slog.
Happy Father’s Day! Thinking of those who have also lost their parents. My wonderful dad died of cancer when he was 49. He’s the reason I went into public health.
We should be testing at airports & have real quarantine procedures. South Africa variant is worrying esp bc some scientists are unsure if vaccine will work against it. The more virus circulating globally, the more mutations will happen.
Reality check: Germany (pop 83million) running 200-300 cases per day and sudden outbreak is 1000 cases from a factory. UK (pop 66million) running 1200-1500 cases per day. Like an equivalent big outbreak everyday in the UK.
If Scotland, N.Ireland & Republic of Ireland can all drive numbers low & head towards a ‘zero COVID’ goal —> why can’t England? Takes leadership, clear strategy, building functional test/trace/isolate system & trust in govt.
Here is the problem -> UK govt has no strategy beyond locking down. No exit strategy. They don't have testing turn-around times fast enough. There's not enough support for isolation. Borders remain largely open. There is *much* more they could have done, but no bold leadership.
Not all disabilities & health conditions are visible (…and if someone is wearing a mask, they could also be protecting their family members & loved ones). No reason to get angry.
A real tragedy of history that when COVID-19 hit in early 2020 that Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and Jair Bolsonaro were in power. The United States has passed 1 million deaths while Britain about to reach 200K deaths soon. How many were preventable w/early action to delay spread?
Watching
#Newsnight
: hearing Cummings being crucial & central for decision-making & leadership for COVID response in the UK for past few months. Shouldn’t it have been an experienced public health specialist?