Statistician who got tired of flawed sports betting analysis.
Evaluating individual player performance using AI to find advantages the general public overlooks
Feeling amazing about the new AI tool and how it's pulling data and applying it
For anyone new, I had to start this because all baseball analysis for gambling is flawed and it was annoying me
We should be looking at per at-bat, strengths/weaknesses per pitch
04/25
#NRFI
Sheet
MIL / PIT NRFI (-150) - 1.5 U
SEA / TEX NRFI (-105) - 1 U
I wont say this often, but can ya'll like or comment on this tweet if you like the model?
I get up early or stay up late doing it most nights so I am hoping more than a handful of people are using it
@chiefshive
Maybe because one was a lapse in judgement and the other was prepared remarks trying to indoctrinate college graduates to be homemakers when he was given a platform to be an athlete by his mom being a doctor
@FanDuel_Support
@YesEyeGamble
Bijan is secretly sick and it wasn’t disclosed on the injury report, screwing over everyone.
Fanduel - he played a snap lol sorry
I believe that 99.9% of baseball analysis is flawed.
Most analysis focus on team totals, team trends, or whether a team is coming off a win or a loss, but they overlook important variables
Factors such as left-handed pitcher/right-handed pitcher (LHP/RHP) splits, bullpen
07/16 NRFI / F5 Sheet !!
Picks coming later, info coming out early today to help with your bets
This does take time and effort if you want to like/retweet I would appreciate!
All analysis is done on an individual pitcher vs batter
DM if you want more info!
@wtshaolin
@JradRabel
Bingo. When it’s Lebron or Kaepernick sending a tweet they need to stick to sports. When it’s a kicker giving a literal commencement speech to graduates, that is okay.
The hypocrisy is so loud to everyone but them
Getting more DMs than likes lately, anyone out there who is not DM'ing me interested in the sheet and picks?
25 likes and I'll drop it, it's ready to go
#nrfi
#GamblingX
NRFI is a brittle bitch.
I fixed the algorithm significantly:
- Added Team home/away run conversion rates
- Fixed weights to more accurately mirror past results
- Weighted standard deviation on stats with large deviations
- had ChatGPT tweak my equations based on data provided
Limited sheet today, busy day
DM me if you want me to send it to you as is, a lot of lines haven't been released yet
If people are interested and this gets enough likes I'll just send it out as is when I get a moment
#GamblingX
#AI
#NRFI
probabilities:
- Lowest O/U today is 7.5, SEA/CHW - i do not trust Woo
- O/U of 8, great targets
- wind blowing straight out in Bos/LA (and Bos steals signs at home)
Targets -
PIT/MIL: Up to -130
PHI/OAK: up to -130
TB/SD: up to -140
CLE/AZ: up to -140
I basically created a huge up to date baseball database for maybe the most volatile bet in all of sports in NRFI.
I spent a lot of time and brainpower converting the numbers to project first 5 over/under and ML.
Minny/Det below, anyone interested?
Sitting in a hospital bed waiting on my total hip replacement surgery to start in a couple hours from a basketball injury in college
I think a total hip replacement is a decent excuse to take a few days off MLB picks
Wish me luck!
Today's NRFI Probabilities:
I am riding w/:
Det/Min NRFI (up to -140)
Was/Hou NRFI (up to -135)
Write up on reddit, please check it out. Has a lot of info about baseball trends and betting -
PIT/CHC at -155 is way too much of a vig for me
#NRFI
#AI
These
#NRFI
lines are laughable today. Maybe because there is no NFL today and NRFI is popular
Zero NRFI standing out today for me (Here you all go - )
But I like some K props
Engagement has been low lately, 30 likes I'll i'll drop the sheet and picks!
I'm just going to start posting picks instead of numbers, if anyone wants numbers DM me and I'll send it over:
#AI
Plays of the Day -
- RANGERS First 5 ML -140 (Bet up to -155)
- Under OAK/TOR First 5 Under 5.5 (Projected runs 3.02)
- MIL/CLE
#NRFI
(Bet up to -130)
07/26 NRFI / F5 / Plays
⚾️SEA / MIN NRFI (-115)⚾️
⚾️JOSE RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (-105)⚾️
⚾️BRAVES FIRST 5 TT OVER 2.5 (-125) ⚾️
⚾️OAK/SFG NRFI (UP TO -135)⚾️
⚾️NYY/NYM FIRST 5 UNDER 5 (-125, NOW AT 4.5, SNAG AT 5 IF YOU CAN FIND IT)⚾️
Like/Retweet if you enjoy!
Wow 1,000 followers!!
Thank you all, appreciate the support
So much so if this last leg hits I’ll send $50 to two people who like and retweet this 🙏
Good vibes!
Today's NRFI Probabilities:
I am riding w/:
Det/Min NRFI (up to -140)
Was/Hou NRFI (up to -135)
Write up on reddit, please check it out. Has a lot of info about baseball trends and betting -
PIT/CHC at -155 is way too much of a vig for me
#NRFI
#AI
My Plays of the day
#NRFI
#MLB
Going forward, every day I will be using hit probabilities generated by AI to find guys with good values at .5 o/u hits and parlaying them together.
** Going to roll it over each time until $1,000 (4-5 bets) then starting over!! **
🚨🚨
#NRFI
/
#YRFI
Probabilities🚨🚨
Due to new twitter rules I'll be keeping my tweets to a relative minimum
I like:
Min/Bal NRFI
CHW/OAK NRFI
What else stands out?
Let's give this a try
Chance of NRFI:
Angels - 73.4%
Orioles - 70.1%
Braves - 54.3%
Phillies - 68.9%
Nationals - 72.9%
Reds - 57.9%
Brewers - 74.11%
Mets - 68.05%
Pirates - 84.35%
Marlins - 63.5%
I had to do a shitload of updating, this is all I got done. Off to egghunting
🚨🚨
#NRFI
/ First 5 and Team Total Numbers🚨🚨
2-2 on picks yesterday (yesterday was an offensive explosion my god)
Like and retweet if you enjoy! Suggestions always welcome
Brand change complete!
I will be using AI for
#NRFI
, but will be using it for other bets where I can find an edge too
Picks and tracking coming today!
Working on some tweaks I am really excited about
Incorporated home/away run conversion rate related to teams 🤓 & changed some weights
I think I cracked the code
Working on it, still checking accuracy against past results. Stay tuned
I swear I hit every bet make while testing
🚨🚨
#NRFI
/
#YRFI
Probabilities🚨🚨
For new followers. the percent is the probability of an NRFI occurring.
First per team, then multiply those together to get full NRFI odds
🚨🚨🚨06/20/23
#AI
#NRFI
/
#YRFI
ODDS🚨🚨🚨
Percentages are chances of an NRFI occurring. First per individual team, then overall NRFI.
>53%, suggest NRFI
<47%, suggest YRFI
*I will be posting my plays later*
To anyone new:
NRFI analysis everywhere is flawed and why I had to do this last year.
Instead of looking at history of pitchers/teams I break down pitcher vs batter specifically and assign a value to that matchup.
Using AI and this I can predict NRFIs with very high accuracy
NRFI Odds 04/01
A few games did not have enough data on the pitchers to reasonably predict. That'll fade as the season progresses
Tigers/Mets NRFI
Reds/Phillies NRFI
Value for Rangers/Rays NRFI, I'll sprinkle that too
Huge shoutout to
@CorpCorey
for collabing on picks with me today 🔥
Rolling with:
Oak/Det NRFI (at -105 value too good to pass up)
Rays ML (-135)
I’ll drop a few parlays later too, todays gonna be a good day 🙏🙏
NRFI only right now. I will try to get First 5 numbers out before games but I have a few updates to make
POTD!
CIN/AZ First 5 Over 6
KC/ NYY NRFI
Boston First 5 ML
🚨🚨NRFI / First 5 Sheet🚨🚨
My Plays:
White Sox First 5 TT Over 1.5
Brewers/Phillies NRFI
Astros/A's First 5 under 4.5
Rays First 5 TT Over 2.5
**
Ship it
🚨🚨 NRFI/YRFI and First 5 %'s 🚨🚨
Keep in mind this is a general tool to get your attention in the right direction but final picks are discretionary based on feel
Hou/Col odds still haven't been released, my guess is they are trying to get manager approval to make Hou TT 6.5
🚨🚨🚨 YRFI /
#NRFI
Odds for Today 🚨🚨🚨
I am staying away from Col/Cincy and am targeting Bos/Min despite odds.
Cincy and Boston sketchy home/road splits are worth considering:
More exciting plays coming, expanding my sheet to F5, hit props, etc
@ShayneTrail
Tweets like this are a good litmus test to tell who doesn’t actually understand how America legislation works and instead falls victim to headlines and buzzwords and media nicknames
When I hit 1k followers on 8/03 my picks were 31-20 and my overall leans were 73-38
Same day hit a $400 parlay on a $50 bet, gave out $50 each to a couple followers. Good vibes baby
Since then, my picks are 11-24 but leans are similar to before at 73-44
Gonna turn it around
#NRFI
#AI
My plays of the day:
NYY / NYM - NRFI
MIL / MIN - NRFI
MIA / SEA - NRFI
Please please read my reddit post, I am not fancy with my own website I'm paid to write for, I need to use reddit:
Hit me up if you want a specific matchup breakdown
#NRFI
#AI
Mon 06/12 -
Starter has not been announced for Det/Boston but I am not touching this
Boston home/away splits way too high for coincidence (trash cans)
I am taking MIA/SEA straight at -130. Id bet it up to -140
Staying away from OAK/TB
Making major tweaks today, I don't want to rush it out or rush picks. No %'s today
NRFI is fun as hell but too random to predict consistently.
I'll fix NRFI to be more weighted w/ past results, but also work w/ AI on F5 ML & F5 O/U
Test parlay dropping later w/ a new username
🚨🚨
#NRFI
/
#YRFI
%'s🚨🚨
Let's stay hot!
I love that CHC/MIL odds are moving towards NRFI
SEA/SF are -160 NRFI? SF flew cross country overnight so that is the reason odds are high
KC/MIN is a great NRFI but hanging around -110 makes me nervous
Riding w/ CHC/MIL NRFI first!
09/14 NRFI / Pitcher K's!
15 games left! Let's finish strong. Don't forget to take playoff motivations into account. A lot of guys planning their vacations now
NRFI Picks:
WAS / PIT
AZ / NYM
Pitcher K's:
Houck > 6.5 K's (+105)
King > 4.5 K's (-135)
VAMINOS
⚾️05/22 NRFI AI Model⚾️
Tigers/Royals NRFI (-155)
First NRFI all year with implied vegas odds higher thanb -215
(Implied odds are actual individual team NRFI odds multiplied together)
Another 3-1 day, only loss being the biggest favorite I took 🙄
Min/Bal NRFI ✅✅
Was/phi over 4.5 runs first 5 ✅✅
LAD ML F5 🤬
CHW/OAK NRFI ✅✅
Taking a break for the rest of the day, show some love, post the slips if you tailed!
Jumping on early game
#NRFIs
!
I'll send $25 to a random person who likes and retweets this if it hits
If you havent used Bet US yet use this link for a 125% bonus (and online BJ)
NRFI predictor was SOLID last night
For those new to this, anything over 50% predicts NRFI, anything under 50% is YRFI
I do not blindly bet on percentages, it's a tool to help get attention in the right place.
But strictly looking 50%, sheet was 12-2 yesterday
🤯🤯
⚾️04/09
#nrfi
⚾️
Finding myself more and more interested in sportsbook implied odds based on individual team odds
I'm riding Philly/St Louis and Miami / NYY
Who you all thinking?
My ultimate goal with this page is to get spammed in my replies with telegram scams and betting groups promising 10,000% returns and posting slips from 6 months ago
🙏
That’s how you know you made it.
#SportsGambling
Currently on the phone with Sam Altman regarding how his AI is deteriorating in front of my eyes and it's time to open his literal backpack he carries everywhere and end the AI experiment
First NRFI play of the year I am poking through my shorts
Bear with me, good stuff coming
While I picked the wrong game, my overall board (less than 47% = YRFI, more than 53% = NRFI) went 12-2
Only misses OAK/PHI went YRFI on a lead off homer (freaking picked this)
And MIA/WAS went NFRI
The moral is - trust my board, exercise caution with my picks 😂
#nrfi
#ai
1-3 day yesterday with
#AI
projections. Back to back days bases loaded walks with two outs.
Just dropping
#nrfi
projections for now, more coming later
Happy Fathers day all
#nrfi
#ai
#sportsgambling
Today's NRFI probabilities (higher the % higher than chance of NRFI):
St. Louis Cardinals
44.60%,Rank7
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tampa Bay Rays
39.11%,Rank12
Boston Red Sox
Philadelphia Phillies
44.80%,Rank6
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays